Modeling the collapse of the Easter Island culture
William Basener, an assistant professor of mathematics has created the first mathematical formula to “accurately model [Easter] island’s monumental societal collapse.” I am skeptical of this claim because no historical records were kept by the islanders regarding what actually happened, so claiming something is accurate when it cannot actually be verified seems a little disingenuous to me. I don’t like things being presented as fact when they are not falsifiable. Nonetheless, this is a press release, so I suppose that such language is to be expected.
The story is interesting, though, because Easter Island might be an accurate microcosm of what could happen here on Earth in the next couple of thousand years, assuming we don’t all wipe each other out first.
Between 1200 and 1500 A.D., the small, remote island, 2,000 miles off the coast of Chile, was inhabited by over 10,000 people and had a relatively sophisticated and technologically advanced society. During this time, inhabitants used large boats for fishing and navigation, constructed numerous buildings and built many of the large statues, known as Tiki Gods, for which the island is now best known. However, by the late 18th century, when European explorers first discovered the island, the population had dropped to 2,000 and islanders were living in near primitive conditions, with almost all elements of the previous society completely wiped out.
“The reasons behind the Easter Island population crash are complex but do stem from the fact that the inhabitants eventually ran out of finite resources, including food and building materials, causing a massive famine and the collapse of their society,” Basener says. “Unfortunately, none of the current mathematical models used to study population development predict this sort of growth and quick decay in human communities.”
The reason that such models haven’t been developed is simply because population groups that live long enough in isolation to collapse are few and far between. This same collapse will happen to Earth eventually, since this is actually a planet with limited resources. This is one of the many reasons that space exploration is so important. Not for us here and now, perhaps, but certainly for our progeny, because a time will come when we do run out of resources here on Earth.
Dr. Basener plans to turn his formula to the Mayan and Viking populations next, and eventually hopes to modify his work to predict population changes in the modern world. He hopes that it will lead to the development of better population management skills so that future famines and population collapses may be averted.
Unfortunately for Dr. Basener, population “collapses” as a result of famine are relatively uncommon — they usually happen as a result of war: historically it has been common for one group to conquer another, kill all the men and children, and dilute their gene pool by raping their women. It is difficult to find significant population groups that remain isolated for long periods of time where they could implode under their own pressure. Humanity’s biggest threat in the near future isn’t imploding due to famine and mismanagement; it’s imploding due to something akin to nuclear winter. (Though now that the Cold War is over, this seems unlikely, though the possibility still exists.) In any event, I believe that Dr. Basener’s work would be much more interesting if it were applied to the world as a whole rather than just small populations within the world.
Update: There is a Q&A with Dr. Basener here.
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I have edited this comment because it’s been turned into a feature article.
Comment by Bill Basener — September 5, 2005 @ 9:42 pm
[...] Dr. William Basener, whose approach to modeling a societal collapse I wrote about a few days ago, left me some comments, but they got truncated for some reason, so I asked him to continue. He responded, and what he has to say is so extensive (not to mention interesting) that I opted to turn it into a feature article. I hope he doesn’t mind; it’s quite fascinating and readable. [...]
Pingback by polyscience.org » Revisiting Easter Island mathematical modeling — September 6, 2005 @ 10:23 pm
This is anwsome web site. thanks for the stuff
Comment by Samantha — November 22, 2005 @ 12:34 pm